Musharraf brings hope

 I have no vote in Pakistan and even those who have the illusion that they have the vote may also not have a say in the coming dispensation. Governments in Pakistan are made by Allah, the Army and the Americans, not necessarily in that order. But if I have my way, I shall bring back Pervez Musharraf as the next leader of Pakistan.

Musharraf is no angel. He is the architect of Kargil and Agra. He is a liar as his memoir testifies. He staged a coup against the PM who appointed him. When his plane was asked not to land in Pakistan, his greatest fear was that he would land in the hands of India. But today, Pakistan needs a leader with proven experience of running the country and has the blessings of Allah, the Army and the Americans. Of all the candidates, including the present incumbents, Zardari and Gilani, Musharraf has the potential to win the favour of all the three forces. Musharraf looks like a potential winner in the present configuration of religion, armed forces and Pakistan’s allies. Moreover, he is confident that he is destined to lead his country once again. Success goes only to those who dare and act.

Some may argue that it is too early to write off the present civilian government. Gilani has just got a reprieve from the Supreme Court and he does not have to appear in court personally again. The court appeared impressed that Zardari had immunity as president and seemed to acknowledge the helplessness of the prime minister. Moreover, he has won a vote of confidence from the parliament, which had declared itself supreme. He was dignified in his defence of democracy and did not fear a confrontation with the army that had supported him so far. He won the acclaim of the Indian prime minister, who called him a “man of peace”.

But each one of these attributes could go against him in the days and weeks to come. The court could not have been unaware of the immunity claim. Such immunity can be claimed only for the actions of the president in his capacity as the head of state. Zardari is more than just ‘Mr Ten Percent’. He has been charged with more serious crimes, the biggest being the Memogate fiasco, in which he approached the same American commander, who publicly humiliated the Pakistan Army for playing a double game in fighting against terrorism at a time when Pakistan had fallen out officially with the Americans. A vote of confidence by a rubber stamp Parliament cannot help the embattled prime minister to withstand the pressure of the Army. No civilian government in Pakistan has ever survived in Pakistan with even half the wrath of the Army that Gilani has incurred. Gilani may fight as he goes down, but go down he will, sooner or later. His apparent courage may spring from his realisation that his days as the prime minister are numbered. As for the praise from Manmohan Singh, Gilani must have wished that he had not won that accolade. Approval rating in India has never been a source of strength for any Pakistan leader.

Political leaders, who are likely to enter the fray, including Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan, do not have the support of the masses. Imran Khan’s past performance has been lacklustre, he is too modern and West-oriented and Nawaz Sharif has no sheen left. On the other hand, Musharraf has a track record, which could attract popular support. People in crisis may overlook weaknesses and bank on the strengths.

Musharraf is a mystery man in many ways. He came a long way from his native India, erased his past and rose steadily in the Army till Nawaz Sharif promoted him over two other generals, in the belief that he was pliable and weak. Within a year, he overthrew Sharif, when he was denied landing permission when he returned from Sri Lanka after an official visit. Musharraf argued that it was Sharif, who staged the coup and what he did was a counter-coup. In his book, In the Line of Fire, Musharraf claims that the counter-coup succeeded within three and a half hours after his removal as the army chief was announced. The bloodless coup story, as narrated by him, sounds credible and it appears that his hands were forced by Sharif. In fact, the whole book was designed as propaganda for electioneering. He emerges as a patriot, a believer and a firm defender of Pakistan’s vital interests.

Musharraf’s term was turbulent, but he saved Pakistan from becoming a failed state. In her 2002 book, Pakistan, Mary Anne Weaver observed that if he failed in his efforts to reform Pakistan, the country’s true military and religious hardliners would take over: ‘Pakistan will become a theocracy like Iran; or the country will be faced with complete chaos and fall apart’. Americans found in Musharraf a useful ally in the war against terror, even when he was sponsoring terror against India. In the changed circumstances in which a civilian government could not prevent killing of American soldiers, Musharraf may be an attractive choice for the Americans. As long as Musharraf was in power, the Americans did not face any direct challenge from the Pakistan Army and the US kept Musharraf afloat against the flood of threats against him. He can be a formidable candidate with his military record and possible American patronage.

India too found Musharraf the best of a bad bargain. In Agra, India felt confident enough to work in earnest with him and a joint declaration was on the point of adoption twice in the same night. Musharraf turned out to be reasonable and sincere in the negotiations. Eventually, it was India, which backed out at the last moment. During his final call on Vajpayee, he said bluntly that there seemed to be someone above them who had the power to overrule them: ‘I also said that today both of us had been humiliated. He just sat there, speechless’. Indian spokespersons had a tinge of regret over Musharraf’s disappearance. Today, if Musharraf rides back to power with an agenda of a settlement with India, Manmohan Singh will find him a boon. His peace offensive with Pakistan may find resonance, once Musharraf consolidates his position.

Musharraf had come within inches of assassination twice. He may be right in believing that he was spared because of his higher destiny of saving his country at a crucial time. He is still a fugitive from the laws of his land. But the confidence with which he speaks of his second coming will impress many. With all his faults, he may not be a bad choice for the Army, the Americans and India if he provides decisive leadership and comparative stability and thus prevent Pakistan from failing as a state.

(Views expressed in the column are the author’s own)

T P Sreenivasan is a former ambassador of India and governor for India of the IAEA. E-mail: tpsreenivasan@gmail.com